Geopolitical History

The United States

• 2000 CE: After refusing to concede defeat during a contested recount in Florida, Al Gore clinches the Presidential election of 2000. His domestic priority was to shift resources toward green energy and carbon capture, funding many new ventures in a private-public partnership. The resultant shift of venture capital blunted the Dot Com bust, continuing the 90s economy well into the 2000s.
• 2001: A major terrorist attack is foiled when, acting on credible intelligence reports, authorities halt several hijacked airliners on the ground. Interrogation later reveals plans to fly planes into the World Trade Center, the Pentagon, and the White House.
• 2002: Al Gore signs the FAIR Act, regulating the presentation of nonfiction content on the Internet. Unbeknownst to the people of this timeline, this would drastically reduce misinformation in the coming decades. Later in the year, he authorizes regulated research efforts using fetal stem cells, which would develop into a boom in regenerative medicine in late 2010s.

...

• 2008: Bob Graham, Gore's VP from 2005, enters a contested Democratic Primary, facing headwinds from Hillary Clinton's strong populist support. However, both are blindsided by the charismatic John Edwards, who captured a primary win to face against GOP candidate John McCain. Edwards enjoyed a narrow but enduring lead against McCain throughout the general election, until a series of personal scandals savaged his reputation. John McCain wins the Presidential election, with Mitt Romney as Vice President.

Middle East

• 2010: Saddam Hussein dies, leading to an internacene conflict between Uday and Qusay Hussein to retain leadership of the Ba'ath Party. Hawkish supports of the McCain administration expect swift U.S. intervention, but the president has a conservative response, citing a need to de-escalate tension and reduce suffering.
• 2011: The Arab Spring begins as dissidence in Syria and Libya spread across the Middle East. With the populist movement spreading to the disenfranchised Shia majority in Iraq, the Hussein regime is critically weak. Iran begins targeted strikes to further weaken the regime, in the name of rescuring their Shia brethren. Again, McCain faces criticism for limited intervention, as hawks demand "boots on the ground" to prevent further escalation. In a passionate speech, he condemns warhawks for "wanting to send someone else's boys to die on foreign soil while they sip lattés".
• 2012: Russia sends expeditionary forces to bolster the Assad regime in Syria, and the situation for the resistance becomes dire. McCain's likeliest opponent in the upcoming election, Hillary Clinton, promises military intervention if elected to protect millions of civilians from the violence in Syria. Rumors of a primary challenge from Romney, who is wary of Russian empire-building, undermine McCain's stability throughout the year. McCain does win a minor victory, making a deal with Israel to allow some asylum seekers from Syria into the country, but the effort isn't seen as sufficient. Clinton and her running mate Barack Obama capture the 2012 election.
• 2013: Operation Mercy is launched by a coalition of the U.S., Canada, several European nations, and middle east allies, with the goal of accomodating as many refugees as possible from Syria, while pressuring Assad and Russia to limit the engagement. Sharp sanctions on Russian gas, made possible through a decade of green energy investments, successfully persuade Russia to pull back most of its military committments in Syria. At Israel's insistence, Damascus is occupied by peacekeeping forces after Assad goes into hiding. Peacekeepers face off against militants hoping to establish their own regime, dispersing agitators who may have established a counter-revolutionary government. A multinational coalition remains to "guide" the Syrian people to rebuild their government. The coalition fails at one goal--the successful capture of Assad--as resistance fighters claim him in a moral victory for their movement.
  • Iraq: after years of chaos in Iraq, the new administration is called on to intervene. While military efforts are largely tied up with Syria, the opportunity to find lasting peace in Iraq, as well as to limit Iranian empire-building, is too great to ignore. The Coalition sends peacekeeping forces to protect the democratic process in Iraq, as a plebiscite is established to build a new government. The people of Iraq welcome Iranian expeditionary forces who are keeping the Ba'athists tied up in the countryside, on the defensive, but are somewhat malleable to economic overtures from the Coalition. In the end, Iran's superior military position--near-total dominance of the only shipping channel available to Iraq, gives them fair more bargaining power. The new regime is not a full theocracy, but is strongly aligned with Sharia and allows a permanent IRGC presence in Iraq.
• 2014: The coalition, largely understood to be driven by Israel, pushes for Syrian resettlement. With the major city centers pacified and order restored, many asylum seekers throughout Europe return home. Militants are increasingly pushed away into the countryside, where they can rendezvous with Ba'athist and malcontent remnants from Iraq. The two combine to form a new movement: the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria.