The Spellplague

As with any plague, there are those who are strangely immune from the start, and those who survive its ravages, changed, but no longer vulnerable to it.

It is evident that the Spellplague is an affliction of the Weave, and all its magicks, but not of other power sources. From the start, those drawing upon other planes had little trouble with continuity. Many have turned to this path, and there are even a few "schools" of Pact Magic forming across the world, some attempting to cast off the stigma of "warlock" magic, others boldly taking on the appellation, daring the world to do something about it.

Artifice

For every caster who has turned to previously forbidden magicks to maintain their power, another ten have turned to Artifice. Though there are various disciplines within the art, they all share an important aspect: they bind and contain magical energy, and that seems to provide the stability the Weave no longer has. Many former wizards have wholeheartedly adopted the new technology; others weave magic and Artifice together into a new whole. Still, those few are far outnumbered by legions of magically-devoid people who are perfectly able to construct and use tools of Artifice, provided the right power source, of course.

The need for power sources has become a rush; enterprising miners and adventurers are turning over the earth to find them, to power their own inventions, or to sell them dearly to power-hungry artificers. Each of the various "schools" of Artifice uses a different type of power source:

Natural Magic

Notably, those who invoke the power of gods, natural forces, or other extant sources find their magic quite stable, and indeed richer and more intense, as long as they are proximal to their source. This is perhaps most philosophically challenging for priests and paladins (see Gods Among Us below), but it also driving wedges amongst the druid community, which otherwise is ascendant in the new, mana-rich world.

The Year of Blue Fire saw the return of a number of primordial forces--gods, in truth, but not very similar to their humaniform counterparts--to the physical world. They take many forms--animal, elemental, monstrous--but they tend to share a certain aloofness, if not outright hostility to the civilized world, and to its gods. These natural gods, collectively known as the Primordials, have attracted a cult following of invokers and sycophants, and, for those who haven't just devoured all the fools at their feet, the adoration may be going to their heads. See Gods Among Us for specifics.

These druids are somewhat opposed by "traditional" druids, who honor the Primordials but do not worship them, and dare not draw power from them for fear of upsetting the balance (and, you know, being corrupted with hateful, animal intent). In the face of the various cults of primordial worship, the Druids of the world are beginning to unify, forming the Circle of Toril, apart and above the world's many regional circles. They are making themselves known to the world at large, but they are not a service organization; they are quite clear in their intent: to keep the balance of magical power.

Divine Magic

As for those who prefer the power of formerly extraplanar deities, the priests and paladins of the world have also somewhat diverged. Some deities, formerly of the celestial persuasion, now dwell upon the earth alongside their mortal counterparts. They have not divulged much of the reason for their unexpected visit, simply that they wish to be closer to their flock. As to why other gods have not done the same, they are silent.

Those too far from their god's new home, or whose faith was not blessed with a lengthy stay by their patron, have turned to relics. True relics of the faith retain the power of their god, and can be drawn upon by the faithful...or, in truth, anyone with a bit of magical talent. While many of these are being wielded with care by well-organized churches, many more are held by itinerants and wanderers, self-proclaimed "prophets" of this god, that new interpretation of an old god, or of a god nobody's heard of before. It is relatively easy to win a cult following by healing some wounds or raising the dead, and so these dime-store priests proliferate...sometimes harmlessly, but oft as not, a serious threat to established churches or even nations.

Gods of Civilization

Notably absent:

• The Elven Pantheon is not present in the flesh, but they can be communed with at any of the Elder Trees or other sacred sites, and their faithful can draw power from anywhere in the Elven Realms. This is attributed to Leuthil Silverstar within lands favorable to her, and to King Durothil or the Eternal Sun elsewhere.
• The Dwarven Pantheon is not physically present, but they are speaking to their faithful of ancient ruins, long buried, that will unlock a new destiny for the dwarves. The Soul Forge is, of course, rumored to be there.
• The Drow Pantheon is pretty much dead, save for a remnant of Lolth that stirs in the deep, and the primordial Ghaunadar, who, as ever, lurks deeper still.
• The gods of nature, Chauntea, Mielikki, Silvanus,

Wild Gods

Primordials

Celestials

• Selune / Shar

The Sildeyuir and the Yuirwood are now one. The forest itself has grown larger, and the lands of Toril have shifted to accomodate. The outer wood is the Yuirwood of old, mostly intact. As one travels inward, daylight grows dim, and soon all is night. Primal terrors roam the wilds, and star elves jealously guard their sacred places. Things sometimes wander into the world of day, and it is all the Ten-Tribes and the defenders of the wood can do to keep them contained.

Similarly, the hidden realms of Cormanthyr are now part of the landscape, most notably the the Queen's secret city, now known as Silverport. Long housing the Queen's hidden fleet of Spelljammers, the tiny settlement has boomed into a city, the foremost spelljamming shipyard in the surface world. The ancient techniques of the Star Elves, combined with new discoveries in Artifice, are churning out a new fleet that may yet give the small elven nation an edge.

Anauroch is still largely barren, but Elder Trees have popped up throughout the land, and from each, new growth surges forward, expanding into the barren landscape for some miles these last few years.

But yeah, let's talk about the elephant in the room.

Ilythiir

Thay

Things are tense in the East. Empress Anastasia and Sceptenar Tchazzar have not been seen to associate much, and it is feared they are at odds. Thay remains friendly with most of their neighbors, but suffers from internal unrest. The south, never great friends of Zahl or Anastasia, have seceded in all but name. They are deeply in arrears in taxes and levy--aided by their vast criminal network and thorough corruption of the bureaucracy, and the one friend the Empress had in the south--Ardyn, the Keeper of the Flame, foremost religious figure in the Thayan south--was lost in battle to his faith's nemesis, the Black Flame, some years past, and has been replaced by a new, truly incendiary figure: Kaliya, the Sage of Flame, a literal demigod who claims to be descended from Kossuth, and has replaced the mortal Keeper as the key religious idol among the common folk. Far from sagely, she is vain, easily flattered, and quick to action, with little thought--and thus has been rather easily wrapped in a web by her own priesthood, who are using her power and popularity for political gain--in this case, propping up secessionist elements and fomenting unrest, and possible war with Thay's neighbors (to be conveniently blamed on the Empress, naturally).

Unther

Said neighbors include Unther, whose brief resurgence has long passed, and their return to decline seems to have hastened their trajectory toward rock bottom. What little passed for a government there had been replaced by a burdgeoning theocracy, which has descended into sectarian conflict, leaving the nation in complete chaos. Still, their independence is still technically guaranteed by Thay, which stays the hand of would-be conquerors (i.e. Chessenta and Mulhorand) for now, but at terrible political cost to the Empress. Does she continue funneling resources into a lost cause, risking the enmity of two mighty enemies, or does she renege on her predecessor's promise, and reveal the word of the Empress to be meaningless?

Chessenta

Chessenta is, of course, continuing to play 4-D chess on the world's political stage. For years now, Tchazzar has had an army capable of smashing any of his foes--perhaps all of them put together--but he continues to preach the virtues of peace, interdependence, and mutual prosperity. He has kept his army sharp by sending expeditionary forces to battlefields as far as Kara Tur and Zakhara, while carefully avoiding conflicts with Chondath (under the protection and dominion of Risen Jhaamdath), Mulhorand, and Thay, and even the rising star of Cormyr, all while subtlely impressing upon them the very real possibility that his massive army could be on their doorstep at a moment's notice.

Mulhorand

Matters in Mulhorand continue to evolve. The Pharaoh is incredibly strong and popular--perhaps more favorable to her common folk than even mighty Tchazzar--and her realm is flourishing under her reforms. In the eight short years since she took the mantle of power from her brother, the realm had catapulted from dead last in terms of human development and economic parity, to near equality with Chessenta, with the very real possibility of rivaling top-tier nations like Thay, Cormyr, and the Silver Marches by the end of the decade. Of course, these changes didn't come for free, but were rather bankrolled by the Pharaoh's relentless assault on the assets of the priesthood, and, to lesser extent, the landed gentry. The priests absolutely despise her, despite their public stance of overt worship (being that she is a literal god), and have funded countless assassination attempts against her and her loyalists, almost all of which she has foiled. The Pharaoh may or may not be a literal god, but she is among the 50 most powerful spellcasters on the planet, and has the backing of a covert organization which contains several more of the same. She is, in essence, "tanking" their rage, to the benefit of her people, but the arms race continues. They have shifted focus from simple assassination attempts to fomenting general unrest. They find vulnerable youths--usually among the less well-off aristocratic families--and groom them into terrorists, directing their attacks not at the invulnerable Pharaoh herself, but at rural temples of Isis, or community gathering places, or other places of peace and well-meaning that resonate with the Pharaoh. Their cowardly attacks hardly turn public opinion against her--in fact, they harden their resolve to their glorious leader--but that isn't the intent; they are trying to hurt her, personally. And it's working. She grows bolder in her attacks upon their privilege, and more aggressive in trying and executing specific transgressors that she can pin down--but, like a hydra, each one she captures is replaced by many more. It is a vicious cycle of violence, and their hope is to undermine her humanity, cause her to slip up. If it costs them the entire kingdom, if every Mulhorandi is slain, raped, or sold into slavery, and every holy place violated, it will have been worth it to prove their superiority to this pretender, this...woman...who claims to wield power over them.

Threskel

The rising star of the East is Threskel. This tiny dual monarchy had scarcely been heard of prior to the Games of the Olympiad in 1380, but by the time they rolled around again in 1384 in Impiltur, they were nearly a household name, along with King Plataeus and Queen Ceresia, gracious hosts of the games, and otherwise dual rulers (what's that about?) of this tiny, insignificant realm in the east. In 1385, Tchazzar offered them a guarantee of independence, citing his love of the games, his gratitude for their efforts toward world peace (which as everyone knows he is SUPER into), and of course the importance of keeping their holy land pure and free of political influence. After all, their land is host to Mount Olympus, where the Ephors read the prophecies of the Oracles, and where the true Celestial Stairway resides, leading directly to the realm of the gods.

Well, all that is well and good, but Threskel's army is surprisingly effective, if dwarfed by Chessenta's mighty ranks. Still, a few thousand Threskan hoplites might well be a match for, say, the completely unorganized mob that defends Unther, and that seems to be the intent of Tchazzar's political will. Nowhere in his decree of their independence did he forbid them from fighting on their own behalf, but many times did he mention their ancient claims to power in their own realm, their divinely-endowed role in defending the homeland of the gods, and, crucially, their many victories against "godless eastern barbarians", i.e. Mulhorandi and Untheric invaders, who did, many centuries ago, technically invade lands their ancestors once ruled. Now, after a few seasons fighting alongside Tchazzar's hoplites, Threskel's small army is hardened and battle-thirsty, and stands ready to invade their weak neighbor at the stamp of King Plataeus' foot. Should they attack, one wonders if the Thayan guarantee of independence would come into effect, with the threat of Chessentan reprisal, and the very real possibility of outright mutiny in the Thayan south. It's also notable that, by Threskan law, both monarchs must agree to declare war, yet the gulf between the two monarchs is widely known, and many suspect that, given a chance for glory and conquest, Plataeus may well cast aside tradition and act unilateraly, likely forcing Ceresia to show the weakness of her position. Then again, some wonder if indeed she is so vulnerable, or if, like certain other queens, empresses, and pharaohs of the east, she isn't far more clever and dangerous than she appears. In any case, the situation is a flashpoint, and it is merely awaiting a spark.

Thesk and The Great Dale

While the map may mark this area as partitioned between Thay and Veldanthir, neither has much influence beyond their cities, fortresses, and power centers. The other 99% of the land is wild, and ruled by natural forces. Said forces have been chaotic and out of control for years now, since the shattering of the Circle of Leth in the late 1370s by the Son of Death. Matters were calm for a time after heroes battle Vexas and imprisoned him in another plane, and the Circle, now under Arch-hierophant Lorien, has had some time to heal. But when the Spellplague came, the barriers between planes burned away, and the Son of Death--along with his mysterious, brooding mother Morgana--has returned to this world, in the flesh, none too happy about his exile. But along with them came allies, the ancient guardians of the Otherworld, counterparts to the Circle: the Great Sages (or what's left of them), including Kaliya and Imuen. The latter has taken kindly to the Circle and offers her aid, but the former has been distracted by fonts of power, particularly the Everlasting Flame in Bezantur, where she is now treated as an idol and thusly pampered. Still, she is technically bound to defend the Circle and their lands from their ancient enemies, and would probably lend aid if called upon. With sufficient flattery.

As if the enmity of two Primordials wasn't enough, the Circle now contends with hostile elves, denizens of the same land in their (formerly) parallel world, and descendants of the original elven inhabitants before the Sundering. They are distant kin to the Yuir elves--and they certainly appear so at a glance--but are deeply distrustful of outsiders, and are devastating in combat. Efforts to establish diplomatic contact have not been successful, although a mission is being put together by Talrendis Sunshadow and some of the Yuir clans, who has some small common ground with them. They could be powerful allies against the Primordials, if they could possibly be reasoned with.

In this situation, the Circle must turn to outside assistance. They have appealed to the governments of Thay and Veldanthir who claim their lands, with few promising results. They have had better luck with adventurers, eager to profit despite terrible risk, who have helped to stymie the moves of the Primordials and gather valuable intel. If the Circle can succeed at their impossible task, they will spare the world a terrible evil--and likely, no one will ever know what they sacrificed, or offer any form of gratitude.

Impiltur

Two years have passed since the tragic death of the beloved Prince Gabriel Heltharn to an assassin's blade. The realm still mourns--few more so than his mother, who has held the realm together, and vows to keep it safe and stable until her grandson comes of age. Cassiel Heltharn, Gabriel's bastard son by Calliope Forgecrown, has been legitimized by the King and named Crown Prince of the realm, and designated heir to His Majesty, with the near-unanimous consent of the Conclave. His father died in pursuit of peace, and in his martyrdom, he has furthered that goal. Factionalism within the realm has died down to historic lows, and negotiations with the powers of the Inner Sea have continued, in his name. Largely guided by the Queen, with great support and enthusiasm from Sceptenar Tchazzar in particular, yearly convocations have continued, in various locations (Velprintalar in 1385, Cimbar in 1386, Suzail in 1387), and, in 1388, the third Games of the Olympiad are scheduled to be held in Skuld, Mulhorand, whereupon the peace talks will continue. Thus far, the talks have yielded several powerful ideas, including:

• The establishment of an international forum, wherein grievances between nations can be aired and discussed. Not a high court, per se, but a new step to be taken before resorting to violence
• An agreement to furnish unto a 3rd party (the Guild of Heralds) detailed accounts of all political decisions, up to and including war, so that, at the very least, future generations will know the fact of the matter, and not simply the victor's preferred history
• A basis for a system of prisoner exchange during wartime, and a code of conduct for the handling of prisoners of war; as well as a very basic framework for the creation of guidelines regarding the treatment of civilians during warfare, the allowable forms of enslavement, execution, etc (still a lot of particulars to hammer out here)

Despite being outspoken advocates for peace, Impiltur has been heavily arming itself, building, for the first time, a single, unified, professional army. Oddly enough, despite the fact that the threat he poses is a key reason for the creation of said army, Tchazzar has offered advice and resource to help them build said army, and they have (with some wariness) accepted. Impiltur's new fighting force, the Legion of the Conclave, is, by law, twice as large as the next house-loyal army, and loyal to the Conclave directly (who, in normal operations, will cede day-to-day leadership to the king, but who have ultimate authority over the authorization of their legion's use in a particular conflict, and can revoke the king's authority in emergency situations). They are still smaller than the combined house armies of the realm, but they have blended their ancient traditions and unique home-grown weapons and strategies with the modern, enlightened practices of their more advanced neighbors, and are expected to perform notably better than their more traditional counterparts. They have been fielded in several foreign expeditions, especially in Damara and Narfell, but have yet to operate as a military unit on home soil. Their number is around 25,000: an impressive fielding, but dwarfed by Thay's 100,000 (dependable northern troops), and of course Tchazzar's mighty 300,000.

Org: 100% = best possible organization, morale, and technology in the world at this tiem

Reliable numbers only.

Other armies of note:

• Zakhara: in theory, the Grand Caliph can call forth a Grand Army, which might, in the best of times, number in the 400-600 thousand range. In practice, Zakhara is a realm of city-states connected by well-worn, safe sea routes, and separated by vast, incredibly hostile deserts. The idea of a unified land army is absurd, and such a thing has not been necessary or practical since the age of legend, when the world froze and the yak-men of Yehimal came down to butcher and enslave their ancestors. If Zakhara has anything to offer northern wars, it's deep, deep pockets of gold, and thirsty mercenaries with exotic magicks and tactics.
• Calimshan: the most populous nation on the Sword Coast, Calimshan has always boasted a hypothetical unified army in the 100-200 thousand range. Such an army has not been fielded in centuries, and not while the land was independent. Each city acts more or less on its own. Calimport might field a few tens of thousands, if anybody ever cared to invade, but such an invasion would almost certainly be a naval one, and only naval strength would matter in that case. There is no navy on the Sword Coast that dares make such a landing--perhaps if all the pirates of Luskan and Ruathym unified, they could pose a threat, but why should they besiege a city so far away when they can raid close to home? Even a unified civic army has never truly materialized in Calimport, let alone a national one. Times are changing, though, and the Syl-pasha's advisors are calling for exploration of the idea, in the event of some grand, worldwide conflict, such as a new Crown War, or a rampaging Chessenta, or even an airborne flotilla from Waterdeep, mad with power and looking to score some prestige. Little progress has been made pursuing this idea.
• Elves: the realms of Evermeet, Evereska, the Kingdom of the Eternal Sun, and of course Illythir obviously have military power, but it is difficult to quantify this power in terms that would measure well against the human armies above. Men and elves have not warred at scale since the dawn of recorded history, and warfare between elven realms was--according to legend--a matter of world-shattering magicks and weapons of mass destruction. It suffices to assume that these realms would be nigh-impossible to invade using classical techniques, but offer little power projection, apart from massive magic, which is difficult to predict or account for. It would behoove the nations of Man to consider how--if at all possible--to counter these massive magical attacks of legend (if they are indeed real), and how, in the worst-case scenario, one would go about invading an enchanted forest with entrenched defenses.

Children of Anastasia and Tchazzar: